Today, the role of the CIO is more complex than ever. While technological uncertainties dominated in the past – such as the question of whether and when cloud technologies would become established or when AI would be ready for the market – the playing field has fundamentally shifted. Today, it is geopolitical tensions, regulatory changes and economic volatility that influence IT decisions. Technologies continue to develop rapidly, but they are no longer the biggest driver of uncertainty. Rather, it is the context in which they are used.
Helmut Krcmar, former professor of business informatics at the Technical University of Munich and CIOmover from the beginning, argues that CIOs must learn to deal with a new dimension of ambiguity. Speaking at the Hamburg IT Strategy Days 2025, he emphasized that CIOs cannot rely on supposed clarity, but must work proactively with strategic flexibility. This is not just about adapting to new technologies, but also about living with changing conditions and incorporating them into strategic decisions.
From Uncertainty to Ambiguity: The New Framework for CIOs
In the past, CIOs were able to make long-term technological decisions based on probabilities and trends. For example, an ERP platform or a cloud strategy was chosen because technological development provided a direction. Today, however, CIOs are faced with challenges that cannot be solved with purely technological forecasts. The question is no longer whether AI will prevail – that has long been decided – but rather, for example, how geopolitical changes will affect access to AI technologies.
This new reality requires a different approach. Uncertainty can be reduced with more data and better analysis, but ambiguity remains because it cannot be reduced to clear probabilities. The geopolitical direction of the US or European regulatory policy are not only difficult to predict but also inherently ambiguous. CIOs must therefore develop strategies that not only manage uncertainty, but are also able to deal with ambiguity.
Krcmar proposes the method of Radical Acceptance as a first consequence. Instead of complaining about unclear framework conditions or waiting until a clear picture emerges, CIOs should accept the reality that many developments are beyond their direct control. The US may no longer prioritize European markets, the EU AI Act is a reality, and new technology players from China or India could gain influence. These realities can hardly be changed, so the focus should be on how to deal with them.
Action Instead of Stagnation
Traditional IT strategies are based on long-term roadmaps. However, planning that is too rigid can quickly become a dead end. Krcmar advocates a different approach: real options. This means that CIOs do not just take a single path, but consciously create alternatives and then keep them open.
One example is the use of cloud technologies. While many companies rely on AWS or Azure, it is becoming increasingly clear that excessive dependencies are risky. One option, a multi-cloud strategy, allows companies to react flexibly to geopolitical or regulatory changes. Another option would be to prepare and price in the switch to another cloud platform without necessarily wanting to implement this switch: but you can. The situation is similar with LLMs. If you only rely on one language model, you could soon find that a competitor is technologically superior. An architecture that integrates different models and facilitates change is a strategic necessity in an ambiguous environment.
This type of planning requires a new way of thinking. CIOs must not only decide which technology to deploy, but also consciously work to consider and possibly minimize switching costs and consider exit strategies. The digital infrastructure should not be seen as a rigid framework, but as a dynamic system that can be adapted depending on how the framework conditions develop. Not easy, but necessary.
CIOs as Designers in an Ambiguous World
Today’s IT landscape demands a radical rethink from CIOs. It is no longer enough to rely on traditional uncertainty analyses – they must learn to work with inherent ambiguity.
Krcmar therefore recommends three central principles to CIOs: First, to accept the reality of ambiguity rather than seeking impossible clarity. Secondly, to maintain the ability to act through real options and to build up technological and strategic flexibility. Thirdly, to establish strategic communication that is not based on unambiguity but integrates change as part of normal business activity. In a rapidly changing world, the greatest strength of a CIO is not to predict everything, but to be prepared.
